"Scientific forecast for Russia for 2023
In Russia, a very difficult economic situation will be observed in the next one and a half to two years. Income growth can exceed salary growth only if earnings in the unobserved part grow more than in the observed part, and entrepreneurial incomes grow at the highest rate.
Global crisis processes can reach the bottom. Many companies and banks will go bankrupt, unemployment will rise, the situation in the world will worsen, and Russia must respond to any deterioration in circumstances by accelerating its own structural transformation. There are 3 scenarios for the development of the Russian economy under sanctions, all scenarios for the development of the Russian economy imply the continuation of sanctions pressure for at least another 10-15 years, according to the report of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMACP). The CMACP emphasizes that sanctions are imposed for a long time, and their cancellation is a complex political and bureaucratic process. However, over time, sanctions are subject to "erosion". Experts named three options for the development of the country's economy under sanctions. The first is autarky, which implies that Russia does everything by itself by reducing the technological level of its products and reducing living standards. The probability of such a scenario is 10-15%. Next comes institutional inertia (stability over development). In this case, the authorities recognize that the level of instability is so high that it is almost impossible to implement a holistic "development policy". The probability of such an outcome in the CMAC is estimated at 45%. Its result may be prolonged stagnation, lagging behind in technological spheres, in the level and quality of life, and in national security. The third way is the struggle for growth (the probability is about 40%). This scenario assumes the application of efforts aimed at modernizing the Russian economy in new conditions, including the borrowing of technologies, access to affordable markets and the desire to avoid becoming China or another large country as a monopolistic foreign economic partner of Russia. Analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence believe that Russia will need 10 years to recover its economy after sanctions to the level of 2021.
Further developments in the Russian economy are characterized by significant uncertainty, while previously imposed restrictions on the Russian Federation, according to the base scenario of the Central Bank, will remain on the forecast horizon. This is stated in the draft main directions of the unified state monetary policy for 2023-2025. "The further development of events in the Russian economy is characterized by significant uncertainty. It is connected both with the internal adjustment of the economy to new conditions and with external events. The duration and depth of the economic downturn in the coming years will largely depend on how quickly companies will be able to rebuild logistics and production chains, explore new markets and find new suppliers, whether compensating technologies will be developed and how the labor market will adjust. In the basic scenario, the Bank of Russia assumes that the restrictions imposed will remain on the forecast horizon," the document says.